12-19-16 USDA – ERS: Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

FY2017 U.S. Exports Forecast at $134.0 Billion; Imports at $112.5 Billion

USDA-ERS Economic_Research_Service_LogoThe following interactive content provides highlights from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: November 2016

In fiscal 2017, U.S. agricultural exports projected to rise

  • Fiscal year 2017 agricultural exports are projected at $134.0 billion, up $1.0 billion from the August forecast, largely due to expected increases in dairy and livestock byproduct exports. While beef and pork forecasts remain unchanged, dairy is forecast $500 million higher at $5.3 billion.
  • Grain and feed exports are forecast up $300 million to $29.6 billion, driven primarily by stronger wheat volumes and unit values as well as by corn volumes, helping to offset expected declines in rice exports.
  • Cotton exports are forecast at $4.4 billion, a $200 million increase, due to a poor harvest in Brazil and production uncertainty in India.
  • Overall, the oilseed and product forecast remains unchanged at $31.0 billion. Soybean export volumes continue to set records, raising the soybean forecast $500 million, which is countered by expected declines in soybean meal, soybean oil, and other oilseed products.

U.S. agricultural imports forecast down slightly in fiscal 2017

  • U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at $112.5 billion, $600 million below fiscal 2016 due to reduced expected value of imports of horticultural, and sugar and tropical products.
  • Horticultural imports are expected to reach a new record of $53.3 billion in fiscal year 2017, but this also represents a downward adjustment of $600 million from the previous forecast. Processed fruit imports are expected to fall $300 million due to lower expected volumes and unit values, and fresh vegetable imports are adjusted downward $200 million due to lower expected shipments.
  • U.S. imports of sugar and tropical products are forecast to be worth $22.8 billion in fiscal year 2017, a $400 million downward adjustment from the previous forecast. Both coffee and sweeteners and products imports are forecast $200 million lower than in August due to reductions in expected volumes.
  • U.S. imports of livestock, dairy, and poultry are lowered $200 million to $15.6 billion as declines in pork and cattle more than offset increases in dairy products and miscellaneous products.
  • Projected imports of oilseeds and products are increased $200 million from the previous forecast to $8.3 billion. Vegetable oils are forecast to increase in fiscal year 2017 in response to small increases in unit values expected for particular commodities, and the volume of soybeans and rapeseed imported is also projected to rise this fiscal year.

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