The June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is now available in PDF, XML, and Microsoft Excel formats at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
Acrobat Reader, which is required to view and print the WASDE report, can be downloaded at: http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html
Previous WASDE reports are available at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194.
NAFB’s WASDE at a Glance
WASDE at a Glance
CORN: Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are reduced 95 million bushels as a 100-millionbushel increase in the corn export forecast more than offsets a slightly higher import projection. As of early June, total U.S. corn export commitments are above year-ago levels for the first time in the 2015/16 marketing year. The U.S. corn export projection for 2016/17 is raised 50 million bushels as U.S. supplies are expected to remain more competitive. Corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 2,008 million bushels, down 145 million from last month. The season-average farm price for corn is raised for both 2015/16 and 2016/17. The 2015/16 price is forecast up 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint with a range of $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel.
SOYBEANS: Soybean crush for 2015/16 is raised 10 million bushels to 1,890 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports. Soybean meal exports are raised in part on commitments through early June. Soybean exports for 2015/16 are projected at 1,760 million bushels, up 20 million with reduced soybean production and exports for Brazil and Uruguay. Soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 370 million bushels, down 30 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are reduced 45 million bushels to 260 million. The 2016/17 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.75 to $10.25 per bushel, up 40 cents at the midpoint.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised this month on both increased beginning stocks and larger winter wheat production. Projected production for 2016/17 is up 79 million bushels mainly on improved prospects for the Hard Red Winter wheat crop in the Great Plains following excellent growing conditions throughout the spring months. Consequently, the winter wheat yield is forecast to be record high. Ending stocks are raised 21 million bushels to 1,050 million, the largest in 29 years. Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 3.9 million tons.
RICE: U.S. 2015/16 rice ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million hundredweight this month to 42.9 million. The larger exports are based on a faster-than-expected pace of sales of southern medium- and short-grain rice to North Africa and the Middle East. Exports for 2016/17 are lowered 1.0 million hundredweight to 112.0 million, with reductions for medium- and short-grain, due to tightening supplies. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 0.5 million hundredweight to 50.9 million and are the largest ending stocks since the mid-1980’s.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar imports for 2015/16 are increased by 182,558 short tons, raw value from last month. Although USDA announced the increase of the raw sugar tariff-rate quota by 140,000 short tons, raw value on May 17, 2016, it is estimated that 122,558 of that amount will enter, implying an increase in the total raw sugar TRQ shortfall of 17,442 to 45,000. Sugar production is increased by 7,874 short tons, raw value based on end-of-season reporting in Florida and Texas. Based on pace to date, exports for 2015/16 are reduced by 35,000 short tons, raw value to 65,000. Total U.S. sugar supply for 2016/17 is increased by 192,176 short tons, raw value.
COTTON: A marginal reduction of 50,000 bales in 2015/16 domestic mill use is the sole revision in this month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates. U.S. ending stocks are now forecast at 4.1 million bales for 2015/16 and 4.8 million bales for 2016/17. The forecasts for the marketing year average price received by producers are unchanged for both seasons. The world 2016/17 cotton projections include lower beginning and ending stocks, due mainly to reductions in expected production by China.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total red meat and poultry production in 2016 and 2017 is lowered from last month, largely as higher feed prices dampen the rate of production growth. Beef production for 2016 is reduced mostly on lower carcass weights, but the pace of second-quarter slaughter is slightly slower than previously expected. Pork production for 2016 and 2017 is lowered as higher feed prices are expected to impact weights through early 2017. Broiler and turkey production for late-2016 and early-2017 is lowered as higher feed prices slow the expected rate of expansion. Egg production for 2016 is also reduced on expected weaker returns.
Milk production forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised from last month as recently reported cow numbers indicate the herd continues to expand. Cheese and butter prices for 2016 are forecast higher based on recent price data and lower forecast imports, despite relatively large stocks. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is raised based on recent price strength. The whey price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint.