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05-04-13 Colorado’s Wheat Quality Council Tour Wraps Up…

Posted by Brian Allmer on May 3, 2013

CAWG HeaderBy Darrell Hanavan

Route on April 30: Byers to Cope to Eads to Brandon to Cheyenne Wells to Burlington to Colby, KS.

Route on May 1: Colby to Burlington to Holyoke to Haxtun to Wiggins to Prospect Valley to Bennett

Observations:

  • South of I -70 (except for Kit Carson county) is a total disaster due to drought and multiple freezes). 
  • North of I-70 (except for Kit Carson county) has average to above average yield potential.  The 10-year average yield is 33.4 bushels per acre.
  • The winter wheat crop is 3 weeks behind normal in growth stage which is the exact opposite of last year when the crop was 2 weeks ahead of normal and earliest crop in history was harvested.

Yield Estimates:

 The first day yield estimates were made using the NASS formula, crop insurance formula and eyeball estimates.  The second day yield estimates were made using just eyeball guesses since the wheat fields were wet from rain and/or snow.

Colorado Winter Wheat Estimate:

USDA NASS estimates that 2,200,000 acres of winter wheat were planted last fall.  We estimated that 20 percent or 440,000 acres will be totally abandoned.  The 10-year average for abandonment is 11.4 percent.  The highest level of abandonment since 1970 was 29.8 percent in 2002.  There is the potential that 30 percent or 660,000 acres will be totally abandoned.  Based on an abandonment rate of 20 percent and a 34 bushel per acre statewide average yield total production would be 59,840,000 bushels (1,760,000 acres harvested X 34 bushel average yield = 59,840,000 bushels). Based on an abandonment rate of 30 percent and a 34 bushel per acre statewide average yield total production would be 52,360,000 (1,540,000 acres harvested X 34 bushel average yield = 52,360,000 bushels).

USDA will issue is first estimate of the Colorado and U.S. winter wheat crop on Friday, May 10, 2013.

TO VIEW PHOTOS – CLICK HERE

Posted in The BARN's Ag Market Reports, The BARN's Ag News, The BARN's Home Page | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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