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Note: This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2012/13 season. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2013 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Projections reflect economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Forecasts for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, and production are from the May 10 Crop Production report. For other U.S. crops, the March 30 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted in each table.
WHEAT: The 2012/13 outlook for U.S. wheat is for larger supplies and use, but lower prices. All wheat production is projected at 2,245 million bushels, up 12 percent from last year’s weather-reduced crop and the highest since 2008/09. The all wheat yield, projected at 45.7 bushels per acre, is up 2.0 bushels from last year, but 0.6 bushels below the 2010/11 level. The survey-based forecast for 2012/13 winter wheat production is up 13 percent with a forecast record yield of 47.6 bushels per acre as a recovery in yields in the southern and central Plains boost Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production sharply from the previous year. Partly offsetting is lower forecast production for Soft Red Winter wheat and White wheat compared with last year. Spring wheat production for 2012/13 is expected to rebound with a recovery in durum area and higher projected yields for other spring wheat, which are expected to offset the decline in other spring area. U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 3,133 million bushels, up 5 percent from 2011/12. Total U.S. wheat use for 2012/13 is projected up 8 percent year-to-year on higher expected domestic use and exports. Food use is projected at 945 million bushels, up 15 million from 2011/12 as flour extraction rates are expected to decline modestly from historical highs in recent years and consumption grows with population. Feed and residual use is projected at 230 million bushels, up 50 million from the 2011/12 projection as favorable wheat prices relative to corn and larger HRW supplies boost summer quarter wheat feed and residual disappearance. U.S. exports for 2012/13 are projected at 1,150 million bushels, up 125 million from this month’s 25-million-bushel higher projection for 2011/12. Larger supplies, more competitive prices, and an early expected start to this year’s harvest open the door to higher demand for U.S. wheat during the coming months. U.S. ending stocks are projected to continue their decline from the recent high in 2009/10. At a projected 735 million bushels, 2012/13 ending stocks are expected down 33 million from 2011/12 and 241 million below 2009/10. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $5.50 to $6.70 per bushel, down sharply from the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12. Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2 percent lower on the year as a 23.8-million-ton reduction in foreign production offsets the increase in U.S. output. At the projected 677.6 million tons, global production is down 17.1 million from 2011/12. Lower 2012/13 production for FSU-12, EU-27, Australia, Morocco, Argentina, Turkey, and Pakistan accounts for most of the reduction. Record production for India and China and larger crops in Canada, Afghanistan, Algeria, and Iran limit the decline. Global wheat trade for 2012/13 is expected to be lower than in 2011/12 with world imports projected down 6.1 million tons to 135.3 million. Some of the largest reductions are for EU-27, South Korea, Mexico, Japan, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia where wheat feeding is also reduced. Exports are reduced for FSU-12, Argentina, EU-27, Australia, and Brazil, but raised for Canada. Global wheat feeding is lowered 13.9 million tons from 2011/12 with lower expected supplies of feed-quality wheat and record projected coarse grain supplies. Global wheat consumption is projected down 7.9 million tons or 1 percent from 2011/12 as small increases in food use in most countries partly offset the decline in global wheat feeding. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 188.1 million tons, down 8.9 million on the year. Stocks are expected to remain sharply higher than the recent low of 125.6 million tons in 2007/08. WASDE-506-2
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 416.3 million tons, up 16 percent from 2011/12 with higher area and production for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 14.8 billion bushels, up 2.4 billion from 2011/12. A projected 5.1-million acre increase in harvested area and higher expected yields, compared with 2011/12, sharply boost production prospects. The 2012/13 corn yield is projected at a record 166.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels above the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the rapid pace of planting and emergence. Despite the lowest expected carryin in 16 years, corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 15.7 billion bushels, up 2.2 billion from 2011/12. Total U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is projected up 9 percent from 2011/12 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for sweeteners and starch, and larger exports. Feed and residual use for 2012/13 is projected up 900 million bushels reflecting a sharp rebound in residual disappearance with the record crop and an increase in feeding with lower corn prices and higher expected pork and poultry production. Projected corn use for ethanol is unchanged on the year as weak gasoline consumption limits domestic blending opportunities. Corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 200 million bushels higher than in 2011/12 on abundant domestic supplies, lower prices, and higher expected China demand. Record foreign corn supplies, however, are expected to limit the increase in U.S. shipments. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion bushels from the current year projection. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel, down sharply from the 2011/12 record projected at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel. Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 50 million bushels to 851 million with lower expected June-August feed and residual disappearance. The large year-to-year increase in winter wheat production and attractive prices for wheat relative to corn are expected to raise summer wheat feeding. Record mid- April corn plantings and early May crop emergence boost prospects for early 2012-crop corn usage before the September 1 beginning of the 2012/13 marketing year. As in recent years, this late-summer new-crop usage is expected to displace old-crop usage and boost carryout. Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 1,389.2 million tons, up 6 percent from 2011/12. Global corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 945.8 million tons, up 75.3 million from 2011/12, and the 6th straight year that world corn output has set a new record. Foreign corn production is also projected to be a record at 570.1 million tons, up 13.6 million with the largest increases for Argentina, Mexico, Canada, South Africa, China, and Ukraine. Global corn trade is projected higher for 2012/13 with imports raised 6 percent mostly supporting higher corn feeding in China, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, EU- 27, and the Middle East. Global corn food, seed, and industrial use is also raised with increases in corn processing expected for China, Argentina, EU-27, and Brazil. Global corn consumption is projected at a record 921.0 million tons, up 53.7 million from 2011/12 with more than half of the increase in foreign markets. World corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 152.3 million tons, up 24.8 million from 2011/12, and the highest since 2000/01. Read the rest of this entry »