02-08-13 The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates…
Posted by Brian Allmer on February 8, 2013
WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected 25-million bushels lower this month with higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Feed and residual use is projected 25-million bushels higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations. Projected all-wheat exports are unchanged. The projected season average farm price for wheat is narrowed 5-cents on both ends of the range to $7.70 to $8.10 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are nearly unchanged with a small increase in beginning stocks more than offsetting a small decrease in production. Global wheat output is projected 0.7-million tons lower. Global wheat trade for 2012-13 is trimmed slightly. Global wheat consumption is virtually unchanged at 673.4-million tons; however, global consumption is projected down 24.6-million tons year to year, mostly reflecting lower feed and residual use in 2012-13. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 are also nearly unchanged this month at 176.7-million tons.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected higher this month as lower expected exports outweigh an increase in projected domestic usage. Corn exports are projected 50-million bushels lower based on the sluggish pace of sales and shipments to date and prospects for more competition from Brazil. Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20-million bushels. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 30-million bushels. The projected range for the season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20-cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel.
Usage changes for 2012-13 are also made this month for sorghum and barley. Sorghum feedand residual use is projected 25-million bushels lower, but offset by a 20-million bushel increase in food, seed, and industrial use and a 5-million-bushel increase in exports. Projected barley exports are lowered 1-million bushels. Barley ending stocks are increased by the same amount. The projected range for the sorghum farm price is lowered 15-cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.70 to $7.60 per bushel. The barley farm price range is narrowed 5-cents on each end to $6.15 to $6.65 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-13 are projected 2.1-million tons higher. Global 2012-13 corn production is raised 2.1-million tons. Brazil production is raised 1.5-million tons. Argentina production is lowered 1.0-million tons. Global 2012-13 production is also higher this month for sorghum, barley, oats, and rye. Global coarse grain trade for 2012-13 is higher. World corn imports and exports are raised only slightly, but significant shifts are made among countries. Global corn consumption for 2012-13 is lowered with a reduction in world feed and residual usage. Global corn ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected 2.1-million tons higher.
RICE: Slight revisions are made to the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class supply and use balance sheets. U.S. 2012-13 total rice supplies are raised slightly because of an increase in imports. Beginning stocks and production are unchanged from a month ago. Long-grain imports are raised 0.5-million cwt to a record 18.5 million, and combined medium- and short-grain imports are unchanged at 2.5-million. No changes are made on the use side – all rice domestic and residual is still forecast at 125.0-million cwt and exports at 106.0-million. The rice-by-class projections of domestic and residual use and exports are also unchanged from a month ago. All rice 2012-13 ending stocks are raised nearly 2-percent to 30.6-million cwt – all in long-grain rice. The 2012-13 long-grain, season-average price is raised 10-cents per cwt at the midpoint and the range is narrowed to $14.00 to $14.60 per cwt. The combined medium- and short-grain price is lowered 50-cents per cwt at the midpoint and the range is narrowed to $15.90 to $16.50 per cwt. The all rice season-average price is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt at the midpoint, but the range is narrowed to $14.60 to $15.20 per cwt.
Global 2012-13 projections of rice production and consumption are raised from last month, but trade and ending stocks are lowered. Global 2012-13 rice production is forecast at a record 465.8-million. Global consumption is raised 0.7-million tons to a record 469.3-million. Global exports for 2012-13 are lowered slightly. Global 2012-13 ending stocks are reduced 0.5-million tons to about 102.0-million.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 125-million bushels, down 10-million from last month due to increased crush. Soybean crush is raised 10-million bushels to 1.615-billion. Strong U.S. soybean meal exports during the first half of the marketing year are partly offsetting declining shipments from Argentina where crushing has slowed due to limited soybean supplies. Domestic soybean meal use is raised in line with projected gains in meat production. Soybean oil production is raised on higher soybean crush and a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil exports are projected at 2.3-billion pounds, up 150-million from last month as sales continue stronger than expected. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 1.665-billion pounds, up 125-million. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012-13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.05 per bushel, up 5-cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $430 to $460 per short ton, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price projection is also unchanged at 49 to 53-cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2012-13 is projected at 466.9-million tons, up 1.1-million from last month. Global soybean production is raised fractionally to 269.5-million tons as improved production prospects in Brazil offset deteriorating conditions in Argentina. Global oilseed stocks are projected higher, mostly reflecting higher soybean stocks in Brazil.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012-13 is increased 65-thousand short tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher sugar production more than offsetting lower imports. Sugar use is unchanged.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month reflecting higher forecast beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised based mostly on heavier carcass weights. The beef production forecast is also raised as cow slaughter in the first quarter is expected to be relatively high. Pork production is raised as carcass weights are expected to reflect more moderate feed costs. Broiler hatchery data pointed to continued expansion of bird numbers and weights at slaughter have been increasing. Thus, the broiler production forecast is raised from last month. Turkey production is raised slightly on hatchery data. Egg production is raised on higher producer prices and lower forecast feed prices. Estimates of 2012 meat and egg production are adjusted to reflect December data.
The beef export forecast for 2013 is unchanged as trade restrictions by Russia are offset by gains to Japan and other markets. Pork exports are lowered on trade restrictions imposed by Russia although there is expected to be some offset in higher exports to other markets. Broiler and turkey export forecasts are raised from last month on stronger demand from a number of markets. Import forecasts are unchanged from January. Beef and pork export estimates for 2012 are lowered due to slower-than-expected shipments in November. Poultry is raised based on larger-than-expected November shipments. Cattle, hog, and turkey prices for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Broiler and egg prices are raised on expected demand strength in 2013.
The milk production forecast for 2013 is raised. Milk cow numbers are raised as USDA’s Cattle report indicated that the number of cows on January 1 was about unchanged from 2012. Milk per cow forecasts are raised as last quarter-2012 estimates were higher than expected and lower forecast feed costs support higher milk yields in 2013. Fat-basis trade estimates for 2013 are unchanged. The skim-solids export estimate for 2013 is raised largely on expectations of stronger nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments, but the import forecast is unchanged. Milk production estimates for 2012 are raised, reflecting end-of-year production data. Dairy trade estimates for 2012 reflect the pace of trade through November. Cheese prices are unchanged from last month, but the price range is narrowed. NDM and whey prices are raised reflecting stronger demand, but the butter price is lowered. Despite a higher whey price, the forecast Class III price is unchanged although the range is tightened. Lower butter prices are more than offset by higher NDM prices resulting in a slightly higher forecast Class IV price. The range of all milk price for 2013 is narrowed to $18.90 to $19.70 per cwt.
COTTON: This month’s 2012-13 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Estimates of production and domestic mill use are unchanged. Exports are raised slightly to 12.5-million bales. Ending stocks are forecast at 4.5-million bales, accounting for 28-percent of total disappearance. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 69-73 cents per pound is raised 3-cents on the lower end and 2-cents on the upper end of the range, reflecting a sharp increase in the price received for December.
The aggregate world 2012-13 production, consumption and stocks forecasts show only slight revisions this month. World production is estimated marginally higher. World consumption likewise is increased marginally. World ending stocks are virtually unchanged at 81.9-million bales.