07-20-12 *USDA/NASS News* The latest Cattle on Feed Report…
Posted by Brian Allmer on July 20, 2012
Released July 20, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 2 Percent
All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2012, totaled 97.8
million head, 2 percent below the 100.0 million on July 1, 2011. This is the
lowest all cattle and calves inventory for July 1 since the series began in
All cows and heifers that have calved, at 39.7 million, were down 2 percent
from July 1, 2011.
* Beef cows, at 30.5 million, were down 3 percent from July 1, 2011.
* Milk cows, at 9.2 million, unchanged from July 1, 2011.
Other class estimates on July 1, 2012 and the changes from July 1, 2011, are
* All heifers 500 pounds and over, 15.7 million, down 2 percent.
* Beef replacement heifers, 4.2 million, unchanged.
* Milk replacement heifers, 4.1 million, down 2 percent.
* Other heifers, 7.4 million, down 3 percent.
* Steers, weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.0 million, down 1 percent.
* Bulls, weighing 500 pounds and over, 1.9 million, down 5 percent.
* Calves under 500 pounds, 26.5 million, down 3 percent.
* All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 12.3 million, up 1 percent.
The 2012 calf crop is expected to be 34.5 million, down 2 percent from 2011.
Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 25.1 million,
down 2 percent from 2011.
This report was approved on July 20, 2012.
Acting Secretary of
Karis T. Gutter
Agricultural Statistics Board
Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop – United States: July 1, 2011 and 2012
: : : Percent of
Class : 2011 : 2012 :previous year
: —– 1,000 head —– percent
Cattle and calves ……………….: 100,000.0 97,800.0 98
Cows and heifers that have calved …: 40,600.0 39,700.0 98
Beef cows …………………….: 31,400.0 30,500.0 97
Milk cows …………………….: 9,200.0 9,200.0 100
Heifers 500 pounds and over ………: 16,000.0 15,700.0 98
For beef cow replacement ……….: 4,200.0 4,200.0 100
For milk cow replacement ……….: 4,200.0 4,100.0 98
Other heifers …………………: 7,600.0 7,400.0 97
Steers 500 pounds and over ……….: 14,200.0 14,000.0 99
Bulls 500 pounds and over ………..: 2,000.0 1,900.0 95
Calves under 500 pounds ………….: 27,200.0 26,500.0 97
Calf crop ………………………: 35,313.2 34,500.0 98
Cattle on feed ………………….: 12,200.0 12,300.0 101
Calf Crop and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period – United States: 2011 and
: 2011 : 2012
Period : : Percent of : : Percent of
: Number : total : Number : total
: 1,000 head percent 1,000 head percent
January 1 – June 30 ……..: 25,700.0 72.8 25,100.0 72.8
July 1 – December 31 …….: 9,613.2 27.2 9,400.0 27.2
Total ………………….: 35,313.2 100.0 34,500.0 100.0
Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to
provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle
producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey.
Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and
medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face
personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted
during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal
interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the
month and calf crop for the entire year of 2012.
Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications
and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness
with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance
sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to
it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts
estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the
current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the
Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to
year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are
subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1
cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on
livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates
will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are
available. No revisions will be made after that date.
Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample,
survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also
subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors
cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the following
table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past
performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest
estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for July cattle inventory estimates
over the past 10 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of
97.8 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the
difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.
The table below also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences
between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all
cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate
and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 470,000 head,
ranging from 0 to 1,000,000 head. During this period the initial inventory
estimate has been below the latest estimate 2 times and has been above the
latest estimate 7 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is
likely to understate or overstate final inventory.
Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates
[Based on data from the past 10 years]
: : : : Difference between :
: : : : first and latest : Number of
: Root : 90 percent : estimates : years
Item : mean : confidence :——————————————–
:square : level : : : : First : First
: error : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : above : below
: : : : : : : latest : latest
: percent ———- 1,000 head ———- number
All cattle ………: 0.6 1.0 978 470 0 1,000 7 2
All cows ………..: 0.7 1.3 516 220 0 600 6 1
Calf crop ……….: 1.6 3.0 1,035 516 176 1,098 8 2
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter …… (515) 284-4340
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Vacant – Sheep and Goats ………………… (202) 720-4751
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