READ the NAFB's National Ag News as heard inside the BARN for June 13th

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“Latest Crop Production Numbers for Winter Wheat, Oranges Released”

USDA’s Crop Production report released Tuesday shows a one-percent decline in projected winter wheat production. The forecast is now for 1.68-billion bushels which is 13-percent above 2011. The U.S. yield is forecast at 47.3-bushels per acre. That’s 1.1-bushels more than last year – but down three-tenths from last month. Expected area for harvest is unchanged from May at 35.6-million acres.

Hard Red Winter wheat is down one-percent from last month at 1.02-billion bushels. White Winter is also down one-percent at 231-million bushels. Fourteen-point-one million of those bushels are Hard White. The remaining 217-million bushels are Soft White. USDA has slightly increased Soft Red Winter production to 428-million bushels.

The all orange forecast is 8.96-million tons – an increase of one-percent from the May forecast and the 2010-11 final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast is 6.58-million tons – also a one-percent increase from May.

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“WASDE at a Glance”

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released Tuesday. It is noted that because planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and is several months away in the Southern Hemisphere the projections are highly tentative.

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 51 million bushels with reduced carryin and lower forecast winter wheat production.  Beginning stocks are lowered 40 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel increase in food use and a 30-million-bushel increase in exports for 2011/12.  Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year.

U.S. all wheat production for 2012/13 is projected at 2,234 million bushels, down 11 million. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 41 million bushels lower.  The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $5.60 to $6.80 per bushel.  This remains well below the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are virtually unchanged as adjustments to 2011/12 balance sheets are largely offsetting and projected 2012/13 production and use are unchanged on the month.  Projected 2012/13 season average price ranges for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged.

Adjustments to corn usage for 2011/12 reflect the latest ethanol production and trade data.  Corn used to produce ethanol in 2011/12 is projected 50 million bushels higher.  The higher corn use projection assumes slightly lower ethanol production during the June-August quarter as compared with the same period last year.  Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower as shipments and sales continue to fall off of the pace needed to reach last month’s projection.  Tight domestic supplies and increased competition, especially from Brazil, are also expected to reduce U.S. export prospects during the summer months.   Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are unchanged, as is the 2011/12 season average farm price which remains at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel.

Sorghum exports for 2011/12 are projected 10 million bushels lower, but offset by a 10-million-bushel increase in expected feed and residual use.  Projected barley imports are raised 4 million bushels and exports are lowered 3 million bushels boosting ending stocks 7 million bushels.  Oats ending stocks are projected 10 million bushels lower with projected imports lowered 15 million bushels and feed and residual use reduced 5 million bushels.  Projected 2011/12 farm prices for all three feed grains are unchanged.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 4.8 million tons higher with increases in corn beginning stocks and production.  Global corn beginning stocks are increased 1.6 million tons mostly reflecting higher 2011/12 production for Brazil and China.  Brazil corn production is raised 2 million bushels for 2011/12 to a record 69 million tons. China’s 2011/12 corn production is raised 1.0 million tons in line with recent revisions to official government estimates.

Global 2012/13 coarse grain trade is projected higher this month on increased imports and exports of corn.  Global corn consumption is increased 2.4 million tons.  Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.4 million tons higher.  Of the increase, 2.0 million tons are for China and 1.0 million tons are for Brazil.

RICE:  A reduced 2011/12 U.S. rice ending stocks forecast results in a tighter supply outlook for 2012/13. Beginning stocks for 2012/13 are reduced 4.5 million cwt to 29.5 million—down 39 percent from the previous year, and the lowest beginning stocks since 2004/05.   Production and imports for 2012/13 are unchanged at 183.0 million cwt and 22.0 million, respectively.  On the 2012/13 use side, domestic and residual use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 122.0 million because of an expected decline in rice used in the brewing of beer—a trend observed in recent years.  U.S. 2012/13 ending stocks are projected at 25.5 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month.

Smaller projected 2011/12 U.S. imports along with larger exports reduce 2011/12 ending stocks by 4.5 million cwt.  U.S. rice imports for 2011/12 are projected at 20.0 million cwt, down 0.5 million from a month ago based on U.S. Bureau of the Census data through March. Rice exports for 2011/12 are raised 4.0 million cwt to 101.0 million because of a significant pickup in sales and shipments in April and early May, and an increase in food-aid.  The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season average farm price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, combined medium- and short-grain rice price is $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt, and the all rice price is $15.30 to $16.30 per cwt.  The midpoint of the 2011/12 all rice, long-grain, and combined medium- and short-grain prices are unchanged from a month ago, however, the price range is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range for each.

Global 2012/13 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago.  Global rice production is projected at a record 466.5 million tons, up less than 100,000 tons from last month.  Global 2012/13 exports are raised nearly 1.0 million tons mainly due to an increase for India. India’s 2011/12 exports are raised to a record 8.0 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, due primarily to a reduction for India.

OILSEEDS:  This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012/13 include lower beginning and ending stocks and reduced use.  Lower beginning stocks reflect increased export and crush projections for 2011/12.  Soybean exports for 2011/12 are raised 20 million bushels to 1.335 billion bushels reflecting increased global import demand, led mainly by higher projected imports for China.  Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels mostly due to stronger domestic soybean meal use.  Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 35 million.  With reduced supplies for 2012/13, soybean exports are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down 20 million.  Soybean crush is also projected lower due to reduced domestic soybean meal use.  Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.

The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel.  Soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $335 to $365 per ton and 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 470.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, mainly due to lower soybean and cottonseed production.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is increased 341,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month.  The increase is due to higher beginning stocks and imports from Mexico.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecast for total meat production in 2012 is raised from last month as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets lower beef production.  Pork production is raised on heavier expected carcass weights.  USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 29 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year.  Beef production is reduced slightly as lower steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets higher dressed weights and higher cow slaughter.  Small changes are made to 2013 beef and pork forecasts, largely reflecting higher expected carcass weights.  Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2013 are unchanged.

The cattle and turkey price forecasts for 2012 are unchanged from last month, but hog and broiler prices are reduced, reflecting larger production.

The milk production forecast for 2012 is raised as cow numbers are expected to decline more slowly.  The production forecast for 2013 is unchanged.  Export forecasts are raised for both 2012 and 2013 on expected strength in cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales. The all milk price is forecast at $16.85 to $17.25 per cwt for 2011.  Price forecasts for 2012 are unchanged from last month.  The all milk price for 2013 remains unchanged from last month at $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt.

COTTON:  This month’s U.S. cotton estimates for 2011/12 and 2012/13 show small revisions in trade, which leave 2012/13 ending stocks unchanged from last month.  The 2012/13 production estimate of 17.0 million bales also is unchanged, pending further information about planted area and weather developments.  Exports for 2011/12 are raised by 200,000 bales, reflecting recent strong sales and shipments, while exports for 2012/13 are reduced by 200,000 bales, due to lower expected foreign import demand.  Domestic mill use is unchanged.  The projected range for the 2012/13 season average price received by producers is 60 to 80 cents per pound, 5 cents below last month on each end.

World production is down 1.4 million bales. World consumption is reduced about 1.0 million bales.  World ending stocks projected at a record 74.5 million bales are raised 1 percent from last month, with China expected to hold 42 percent of the total.

The most significant revisions to the world 2011/12 cotton estimates include an increase of nearly 1.8 million bales in China’s imports, reflecting the continued strong pace of deliveries, and corresponding increases in exports for India, Brazil, Australia, the United States, and Malaysia.

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“Rural Economy Report Proves Congress Needs to Complete Farm Bill This Year”

Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow says the report released Monday that shows how the rural economy is helping to drive the nation’s economic recovery further illustrates the need to pass a farm bill before current farm policy expires. Stabenow says American agriculture represents a bright spot in our economy. She notes ag exports are reaching record highs and America’s farmers and ranchers are outpacing the rest of the world in productivity and efficiency. With 16-million U.S. jobs supported by American agriculture – she says it’s critical Congress passes the farm bill this year. Stabenow says they must provide farmers and small businesses the certainty they need to continue growing, creating jobs and helping the economy recover.

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“Amendment Introduced in Senate to Preserve Ability of Farmers to Manage Risk”

Idaho Senator Mike Crapo and Nebraska Senator Mike Johanns filed an amendment Monday aimed at fulfilling Congressional intent by providing an explicit exemption from margin requirements for non-financial end-users that qualify for the clearing exemption. Their amendment is identical to H.R. 2682 – which was approved on a 370 to 24 vote in the House. There has been debate over whether non-financial end-users are exempt from margin requirements ever since the Dodd-Frank conference took place. Crapo says non-financial end-users from manufacturing to energy to farming rely on financial risk management tools like derivatives to manage the unique business risks associated with their day to day operations. He says the economy benefits from this type of risk management activity. Johanns says the responsible business practice of using financial markets to guard against risk should be encouraged. Instead – he says the farmers and ranchers using this practice could be subject to far-reaching and unintended consequences.

According to Johanns – the amendment introduced Monday strives for much-needed clarity by allowing businesses to manage their risk and put their capital to good use – often creating more jobs in the process. Crapo says the Senate needs to pass this amendment to ensure regulators do not divert productive working capital from our economy into margin accounts that would impair economic growth.

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“Johanns Amendment Would Ban EPA Aerial Surveillance”

Nebraska Senator Mike Johanns is looking to ban the Environmental Protection Agency’s use of aerial surveillance with an amendment to the farm bill. Johanns says it’s a trust issue – stating that farmers and ranchers don’t trust EPA doing low-level surveillance flights over their operations. He adds that the surveillance program only adds to the deficit of trust the closed-door agency has earned of late. According to a press release – the agency failed to provide comprehensive answers about the program’s use nationwide. The amendment introduced Tuesday would specifically prohibit EPA from conducting aerial surveillance to inspect or to record images of agricultural operations. It does not affect the use of traditional on-site inspections. Johanns says it’s past time for Congress to put an end to EPA’s use of aerial surveillance.
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“Farm Bureau, Soybean Association Applauds Introduction of PNTR for Russia Legislation”

Senators Max Baucus of Montana, John Thune of South Dakota, John Kerry of Massachusetts and John McCain of Arizona have unveiled legislation that would allow U.S. agriculture to participate in Russia’s upcoming World Trade Organization membership. The measure would establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia – and American Farm Bureau Federation President Bob Stallman says it’s a critical step towards ensuring the U.S. benefits from Russia’s accession to the WTO and remains competitive in that market. As a result of Russia’s commitment not to raise tariffs on any products above the negotiated rates and to apply international food safety standards in a uniform and transparent manner – Stallman says – will give U.S. farmers more certain and predictable market access. American Soybean Association President Steve Wellman says the announcement definitely is an exciting one for farmers.

Farm Bureau says Russia’s membership in the WTO will provide significant commercial opportunities for U.S. agriculture. But to guarantee U.S. access to the market opening and legal aspects that are part of the Russia WTO agreement – the group says PNTR for the country must be enacted by Congress.

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“USDA Accepting Applications for Rural Development Grants”

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says USDA is offering grants to help organizations start cooperatives, expand existing ones or help develop business opportunities in rural areas. He says cooperative enterprises often lead economic growth and job creation in rural areas. Rural Cooperative Development Grants are being offered to non-profit corporations and institutions of higher education. The one-year grants of up to 175-thousand dollars can be used for feasibility studies, creation and implementation of business plans and to help businesses develop new markets for their products and services.

USDA is now accepting applications for these grants. The deadline for applications is August 6th and the grant period should begin no earlier than October 1st of this year and no later than January 1st of 2013. USDA may award up to 5.8-million dollars in grants. USDA is also offering nearly 2.37-million dollars in grants though the Rural Business Opportunity Grant. This program promotes sustainable economic development in rural communities and regions with exceptional needs. Applications for these grants are also due August 6th. Those interested in either grant can contact a USDA Rural Development State Office for more information.

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“No June Increase in Raw Sugar TRQ”

Based on USDA’s June review of the U.S. sugar market there will not be an increase in the raw sugar tariff-rate quota or the domestic sugarcane or sugar beet processor marketing allotments. The department’s June 2012 sugar market forecast indicates a substantial increase in fiscal year 2012 supply due to higher Mexican imports and larger beet sugar production than expected when the April TRQ was announced. An increase in expected fiscal year 2012 demand has resulted in a required increase in the domestic overall allotment quantity under the Sugar Marketing Allotment program. Because domestic processors’ sugar supply is not adequate to fulfill this increased allotment – USDA reassigned the additional allotment to imports. The domestic sugar market is expected to be adequately supplied for the remainder of the fiscal year. Additional adjustments could be made later in the fiscal year if needed. USDA will monitor stocks, consumption, imports and all sugar market and program variables on an ongoing basis.

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“Proposed Rule Would Improve Forest Conservation Efficiency”

To allow the Forest Service to more efficiently implement projects related to improving water flow and the restoration of land and habitat – USDA has announced a proposed rule to streamline and shorten categories of environmental review for certain National Forest restoration projects. USDA Under Secretary for Natural Resources and Environment Harris Sherman says the efficiencies gained would allow for more rapid movement through the environmental review process and reduce the cost to the taxpayers of unnecessary documentation. Sherman says the projects are a win-win for the environment and the public and will result in positive environmental outcomes.

According to USDA – the proposed categorical exclusions facilitate the Forest Service to restore the flow of waters into natural channels and floodplains by removing, replacing or modifying water control structures; restore lands and habitat to pre-disturbance conditions by removing debris and sediment conditions following natural or human-caused events; and restore, rehabilitate or stabilize lands occupied by non-National Forest System roads and trails to a more natural condition.

The comment period for the proposed change is open for 60 days – closing August 13th. Comments can be submitted online, by mail or via fax.

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“USDA Part of Coordinated Response to Wildfires”

Nineteen large fires are burning in nine states – including one of the largest wildfires in New Mexico history and one of the largest wildfires in Colorado history. Federal agencies have made approximately 45-hundred firefighters available to help with efforts to suppress and contain these fires. Through National Interagency Fire Center coordination of Forest Service, Interior and other agency resources – incident management teams, airtankers, fire engines and other resources are also being provided to supplement state and local resources.

Even though there are serious fires burning in several states – the season has actually been below average to date. On average – USDA’s Forest Service and the Interior Department bureaus respond to more than 20-thousand wildfires each year.

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“Latest Pork, Beef and Lamb Export Numbers”

2012 pork exports are still ahead of the record pace of 2011. According to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation – through the first four months of the year – pork exports stand six-percent higher than last year in volume and 16-percent higher in value at 2.17-billion dollars. For April – exports of U.S. pork were up slightly from a year ago in volume – and four-percent higher in value. For U.S. beef exports – April was the strongest month of the year. Despite a decline of eight-percent in volume compared to last year – export value was nine-percent higher than a year ago at 469.6-million dollars. Through the first four months of the year – beef exports were up six-percent in value – despite a 10-percent decline in volume. It was not a great month for U.S. lamb exports. Export volume was down 55-percent from the previous year – with value down 48-percent to 1.8-million dollars. Through April – lamb exports were down 31-percent in volume and 16-percent in value.

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“County Committee Nomination Period About to Open”

The nomination period for local Farm Service Agency county committees will begin Friday (June 15). Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack is urging all farmers and ranchers to participate in this year’s county committee elections by nominating candidates by the August 1st deadline. Vilsack says county committees are a vital link between the farm community and USDA. He says they provide a voice to landowners, farmers and ranchers so they have an opportunity for their opinions and ideas to be heard. The FSA county committees don’t approve or deny farm operating loans – but they do make decisions on disaster and conservation programs, emergency programs, commodity price support loan programs and other agricultural issues.

Those who participate or cooperate in an FSA-administered program and are eligible to vote in a county committee election are eligible to serve on an FSA county committee. They must also reside in the local administrative area in which they are a candidate. Organizations that represent minorities and women can nominate candidates. Farmers and ranchers may nominate themselves or others. An eligible individual must sign the nomination form to become a candidate. The forms for the 2012 election must be postmarked or received by the close of business on August 1st. The FSA-669A form and other information is available online at www dot fsa dot usda dot gov slash elections (www.fsa.usda.gov/elections).

The elections will take place in the fall – with ballots mailed to eligible voters beginning November 5th. Voted ballots will be due back to the local county office by December 3rd. Newly elected committee members and alternates take office on January 1st and will serve three-year terms. Each committee consists of three to 11 members. Currently about 77-hundred farmers and ranchers serve on FSA county committees nationwide.

SOURCE: NAFB News Service