U.S. Sugar October 2011
On October 12, 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest U.S. and Mexico sugar supply and use estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2011 and projections for FY 2012 in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. For FY 2011, the USDA reduced its projection of beet sugar production to 4.675 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a reduction of 125,000 STRV, or 2.6 percent, compared with last month’s projection. A late start to the 2011/12 harvest in the Red River Valley resulted in lower-than-normal sugar production in September, the last month of the fiscal year. Given the elevated degree of uncertainty this harvest season, there was no offsetting increase made to the beet sugar production projection for FY 2012. For FY 2011, the USDA decreased its estimate of tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports by 149,000 STRV, mainly reflecting the deferral of FY 2011 raw and refined sugar TRQ imports until the early part of the next fiscal year. On September 30, 2011, the USDA announced an increase to the FY 2011 refined sugar TRQ of 150,000 STRV and extended the date this sugar is eligible to enter the United States until November 30, 2011. The deferral of this sugar, plus the anticipated entry of FY 2011 TRQ raw sugar in October, is reflected in the 252,000 STRV increase to TRQ entries projected for FY 2012. Estimated sugar imported from Mexico in FY 2011 was increased to 1.687 million STRV, reflecting actual entries recorded by the U.S. Customs Service prior to the release of the WASDE. Sugar use was increased by 100,000 STRV in both FY 2011 and FY 2012. Ending stocks for FY 2011 are estimated at 1.418 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.2 percent. For FY 2012, ending stocks are projected at 889,000 STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 7.7 percent.
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